CHANGE Holdings (3962): FY2025 Results Summary — Operating Profit Falls Short of Forecast as ¥18 Billion Target Is Pushed Back to FY30/3

This article is based on publicly available IR materials and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities.

Note: This site classifies each company’s most recently completed fiscal year as “FY2025”; CHANGE Holdings labels the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 as “FY26/3” (also “FY2026”), and the tables below keep the company’s labels.

CHANGE Holdings, Inc. reported FY26/3 revenue of 52,827 million yen (YoY +13.9%, 96.0% of forecast), but operating profit closed at 11,225 million yen (YoY -16.4%, 80.2% of the 14,000 million yen forecast). The company attributes the shortfall mainly to underperformance by EG and fundbook in the NEW-IT Transformation segment, while the Publitech segment beat its targets. Alongside the results, the company pushed back its ¥18 billion operating profit target from FY28/3 to FY30/3 and allocated ¥5 billion to share repurchasing.

Consolidated Results (Full-Year Actual)

Revenue rose to 52,827 million yen, with new consolidation (fundbook, etc.) and ¥1.1 billion in central government consulting revenue cited as the main factors driving the increase. EBITDA was 13,928 million yen (YoY -7.9%) and operating profit was 11,225 million yen (YoY -16.4%). Profit attributable to owner of parent was 6,937 million yen (YoY -7.1%), EPS was 99.71 yen and ROE was 15.8%. The company states that although Publitech profits rose due to temporary factors (shedding of impairment losses, etc.), NEW-IT Transformation saw a decline stemming from factors including EG’s poor performance and fundbook PPA amortization. Given the shortfall and the revision of mid-term plan targets, 3 executive directors will have their compensation suspended for 2 months.

Item (million yen)	FY26/3 Actual	FY26/3 Forecast	FY25/3 Results	Vs. Forecast	YoY
Revenue	52,827	55,000	46,387	96.0%	+13.9%
EBITDA	13,928	16,554	15,131	84.1%	-7.9%
EBITDA margin	26.4%	30.1%	32.6%	–	-6.3%
Operating profit	11,225	14,000	13,420	80.2%	-16.4%
Operating profit margin	21.2%	25.5%	28.9%	–	-7.7%
Profit attributable to owner of parent	6,937	7,904	7,470	87.8%	-7.1%
EPS (yen)	99.71	113.60	106.61	87.8%	-6.5%
ROE	15.8%	17.8%	18.5%	–	-2.7%
Dividend per share	¥23.0	¥23.0	¥20.9	–	–

On the balance sheet, total assets were 105,605 million yen and total equity was 54,781 million yen at the end of FY26/3. Net interest-bearing debt was 2,939 million yen, and the company reports a net debt/EBITDA ratio of 0.2 (company rule: 2 or lower).

Segment Results

The NEW-IT Transformation segment posted revenue of 23,841 million yen (YoY +14.6%, 84.3% of forecast), while operating profit fell to 3,257 million yen (YoY -45.6%, 51.6% of forecast). In the Private-sector DX, M&A brokerage domain, revenue was 20,253 million yen (81.8% of forecast), with the company citing an EG (BPO) and fundbook revenue shortfall as the primary factor. Cybersecurity revenue was 3,587 million yen (+17.4%), with IDR’s securing of multi-year bundle licensing contracts leading a Q4 recovery.

The Publitech segment delivered revenue of 29,591 million yen (YoY +13.1%, 108.3% of forecast) and operating profit of 14,156 million yen (YoY +8.5%, 101.5% of forecast). Regional creation revenue was 23,085 million yen (+3.7%), as Furusato Choice recovered in Q3 to reach the full-year target. Public-sector DX revenue grew 66.5% to 6,505 million yen, driven by TCS and the Ministry of Defense, including a new ¥2.3 billion contract; outstanding orders grew to ¥2.3 billion as of March 31, 2026.

Segment / Domain	Metric	FY26/3 Actual	FY25/3 Results	YoY	Vs. Forecast
NEW-IT Transformation	Revenue	23,841	20,797	+14.6%	84.3%
NEW-IT Transformation	Operating profit	3,257	5,985	-45.6%	51.6%
Private-sector DX, M&A brokerage	Revenue	20,253	–	+14.2%	81.8%
Cybersecurity	Revenue	3,587	–	+17.4%	101.6%
Publitech	Revenue	29,591	26,160	+13.1%	108.3%
Publitech	Operating profit	14,156	13,045	+8.5%	101.5%
Regional creation	Revenue	23,085	–	+3.7%	103.7%
Public-sector DX	Revenue	6,505	–	+66.5%	128.9%

From FY27/3, subsidiary administrative costs previously recorded under “Adjustment” will be included in the reporting segments. Under the new calculation method, FY26/3 operating profit would be 1,263 million yen for NEW-IT Transformation and 12,439 million yen for Publitech, with Adjustment of －2,477 million yen (total unchanged at 11,225 million yen). The forecast and mid-term targets below use the new method.

FY27/3 Forecast

For the fiscal year ending March 2027, the company forecasts operating profit of 11,500 to 12,500 million yen (YoY +2.4% to +11.4%) on revenue of 57,823 to 59,000 million yen. It expects the growth of fundbook/EG and Furusato Choice recovering its market share in an improving competitive environment to support profit. The lower end reflects the need to closely monitor Hometown tax market growth and share trends, with donations expected to be even more concentrated at year’s end than usual following the points ban (Oct 2025). The annual dividend is forecast at 26.0 yen per share.

Item (million yen)	FY27/3 Forecast (Lower)	FY27/3 Forecast (Upper)	FY26/3 Full-Year Results	YoY (Lower)	YoY (Upper)
Revenue	57,823	59,000	52,827	+9.5%	+11.7%
NEW-IT Transformation revenue	25,792	25,792	23,841	+8.2%	+8.2%
Publitech revenue	32,783	33,959	29,591	+10.8%	+14.8%
EBITDA	14,118	15,118	13,928	+1.4%	+8.5%
Operating profit	11,500	12,500	11,225	+2.4%	+11.4%
NEW-IT Transformation operating profit	1,977	1,977	1,263	+56.4%	+56.4%
Publitech operating profit	12,474	13,474	12,439	+0.3%	+8.3%
Profit attributable to owner of parent	6,690	7,311	6,937	-3.6%	+5.4%
EPS (yen)	99.33	108.55	99.71	-0.4%	+8.9%
ROE	13.9%	15.0%	15.8%	-1.9%	-0.7%
Dividend per share (yen)	26.0	26.0	23.0	+3.0	+3.0

Shareholder Returns

The company resolved to pay dividends of ¥23.0 per share for FY26/3, as forecast, up from ¥20.9 in FY25/3. Its dividend policy is based on a DOE of 3.6% (minimum dividend payout ratio 15%), and the company states that at an ROE of 15% the dividend payout ratio would be 24%. For FY27/3, the dividend is forecast at ¥26 per share. Under the revised capital allocation, in addition to total dividend payments of approx. ¥7.5 billion based on a DOE of 3.6%, the company has allocated ¥5 billion to share repurchasing due to the declining value of its shares, and it approved a share repurchase of up to ¥2 billion.

The shareholder benefit program presents Digital Gifts® twice a year (record dates June 30 and December 31) to holders of 300+ shares, totaling up to ¥20,000 annually depending on the continuous holding period. The board has resolved not to discontinue benefits prior to the record date of June 30, 2029.

Continuous holding period (300+ shares)	June 30	December 31	Annual amount	Benefit yield
Less than 1 year	¥7,500	¥7,500	¥15,000	5.4%
Between 1 – 2 years	¥8,500	¥8,500	¥17,000	6.2%
2 years+	¥10,000	¥10,000	¥20,000	7.2%

Benefit yields are calculated by the company based on the closing price of ¥921 on May 8, 2026.

Mid-Term Business Plan Revision (DJ3)

Based on its FY26/3 progress, the company pushed back the target period for achieving operating profit of ¥18 billion by two years, from FY28/3 to FY30/3. It lowered fundbook growth targets based on PMI progress, while raising targets for the Hometown tax business (Furusato Choice), tourism and sports IP co-creation businesses, and the central government consulting business. The M&A quota was reduced from ¥30 billion to ¥13 billion to focus on organic growth, and the company plans to review M&A quotas around the end of FY28/3. It aims to have the NEW-IT Transformation segment account for a quarter of operating profit by improving margins.

Item (million yen)	FY30/3 Target	FY26/3 Results	4-year CAGR
Revenue	70,000	52,827	+7.3%
NEW-IT Transformation revenue	31,166	23,841	+6.9%
Publitech revenue	39,767	29,591	+7.7%
Operating profit	18,000	11,225	+12.5%
NEW-IT Transformation operating profit	5,391	1,263	+43.7%
Publitech operating profit	16,005	12,439	+6.5%
Profit attributable to owner of parent	11,000	6,937	+12.2%
EPS (yen)	168	99.71	+13.9%
ROE	16.5%	15.8%	–
Dividend per share	¥36.7	¥23.0	–

Among other topics, the company added Field X, the operating company behind the SV League volleyball team Fragolad Kagoshima, as a consolidated subsidiary in April 2026, starting a regional IP co-creation business. It also acquired a total of 350,000 tons of carbon credits (J-Credit) through contracts with forestry cooperatives in northern Kanto.

This article is an analysis based on publicly available information and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. Investment decisions are your own responsibility.