Asahi Group Holdings (2502): FY2025 Results Summary — System Disruption Weighs on Profit as Europe and Asia Pacific Grow

This article is based on publicly available IR materials and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities.

Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd. has a December fiscal year-end; its presentation materials label the results discussed here as “2025 Results” and the outlook as “2026 Forecast” (each spanning January–December), which this article refers to as FY2025 and FY2026 per site convention. Asahi Group Holdings (2502) reported FY2025 consolidated revenue of JPY 2,894.7 billion, down 1.4% year on year, and Core Operating Profit of JPY 263.0 billion, down 7.8% year on year on a constant currency basis, falling short of the company’s plan. While Core Operating Profit increased as planned in Europe and Asia Pacific, it fell below plan in Japan & East Asia due to the impact of a system disruption caused by a September 2025 cyberattack. Operating profit declined 30.9% YoY to JPY 185.9 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent fell 36.7% YoY to JPY 121.6 billion. For FY2026, the company forecasts revenue of JPY 3,220.0 billion (+5.4% YoY) and Core Operating Profit of JPY 291.0 billion (+3.2% YoY).

Consolidated Results (Full-Year Actual)

Revenue decreased 1.4% year on year to JPY 2,894.7 billion (−1.5% YoY on an actual currency basis). While revenue increased in Asia Pacific, revenue from Japan & East Asia declined due to the system disruption and revenue from Europe also declined due to a fall in sales volumes. Core Operating Profit decreased 7.8% year on year (constant currency basis) to JPY 263.0 billion. While profit increased in Europe and Asia Pacific, profit from Japan & East Asia contracted sharply following the drop in revenue. Operating profit fell 30.9% YoY to JPY 185.9 billion, reflecting the decline in Core Operating Profit, a regression compared to the previous year’s gains on the sale of fixed assets, an impairment loss recorded in relation to segment restructuring, and costs associated with the system disruption. Profit attributable to owners of parent fell 36.7% YoY to JPY 121.6 billion; adjusted profit attributable to owners of parent, which excludes one-off factors such as impairment losses, fell 19.6% YoY to JPY 147.0 billion.

Item (JPY Billion, Actual Currency Basis)	2025 Results	Change YoY	vs 2025 Forecast	2026 Forecast	Change YoY
Revenue	2,894.7	−44.7 (−1.5%)	−55.3	3,220.0	+325.3 (+11.2%)
Core Operating Profit	263.0	−22.1 (−7.8%)	−27.0	291.0	+28.0 (+10.6%)
Operating Profit	185.9	−83.2 (−30.9%)	−69.1	297.0	+111.1 (+59.8%)
Profit Before Tax	179.3	−87.7 (−32.9%)	−62.7	274.0	+94.7 (+52.8%)
Profit Attributable to Owners of Parent	121.6	−70.5 (−36.7%)	−45.9	194.0	+72.4 (+59.6%)
Adjusted Profit Attributable to Owners of Parent*1	147.0	−35.9 (−19.6%)	−30.5	168.0	+21.0 (+14.3%)

Segment Results

Note: effective April 2025, Asahi revised its reporting segments — East Asia (Alcohol), previously included in Europe, transferred to Japan & East Asia (segment renamed accordingly), and Southeast & South Asia (Alcohol), previously included in Europe, transferred to Asia Pacific, forming a new Asia Pacific segment. On the current segment basis, Japan & East Asia revenue fell 3.7% YoY to JPY 1,327.2 billion and Core Operating Profit fell 16.1% YoY to JPY 111.6 billion, as the September 2025 cyberattack reduced sales volumes and increased variable and fixed costs even as price and product mix improved. Europe revenue fell 2.5% YoY to JPY 768.2 billion due to unfavorable weather during the peak sales period in Central and Eastern Europe and weak consumer demand in Poland, while Core Operating Profit rose 3.6% YoY to JPY 113.1 billion on improved price and product mix and variable/fixed cost efficiencies. Asia Pacific revenue rose 3.7% YoY to JPY 783.2 billion and Core Operating Profit rose 2.2% YoY to JPY 107.5 billion, driven by Oceania and Southeast & South Asia performance and improved mixes in both the alcohol and non-alcohol beverage businesses.

Segment	Metric (JPY Billion)	2025 Results	Prev. Year	Change YoY
Japan and East Asia	Revenue	1,327.2	1,378.1	−50.9 (−3.7%)
Europe	Revenue	768.2	762.8	+5.4 (+0.7%)
Asia Pacific	Revenue	783.2	782.8	+0.4 (+0.1%)
Japan and East Asia	Core Operating Profit	111.6	133.0	−21.4 (−16.1%)
Europe	Core Operating Profit	113.1	104.6	+8.4 (+8.1%)
Asia Pacific	Core Operating Profit	107.5	109.0	−1.6 (−1.4%)

FY2026 Forecast

For FY2026, Asahi forecasts revenue of JPY 3,220.0 billion, up 5.4% YoY, driven by an anticipated sales recovery in Japan & East Asia and improved unit sales prices in all regions. Core Operating Profit is forecast at JPY 291.0 billion, up 3.2% YoY; the company anticipates a rise in temporary costs associated with system disruption recovery efforts and a rise in variable costs, offset by improved product/price mixes and greater efficiencies. Operating profit is forecast to rise 59.8% YoY to JPY 297.0 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent is forecast to rise 59.6% YoY to JPY 194.0 billion. Total assets are forecast to rise JPY 8.6 billion to JPY 6,037.0 billion, and interest-bearing debt is forecast to fall JPY 274.2 billion to JPY 1,370.0 billion as Net Debt/EBITDA falls to 2.91x. The 2026 forecast does not include any impact from the situation in the Middle East or the East Africa business acquisition; the company separately estimates the risk of increased costs for 2026 from the Middle East situation at roughly JPY 10 to 15 billion.

Item	2025 Results	2026 Forecast	Change YoY
Total assets (JPY Billion)	6,028.4	6,037.0	+8.6 (+0.1%)
Total equity (JPY Billion)	3,008.5	3,247.0	+238.5 (+7.9%)
Interest-bearing debt (JPY Billion)	1,644.2	1,370.0	−274.2 (−16.7%)
Net Debt / EBITDA (times)	3.70	2.91	−0.79
EBITDA (JPY Billion)	402.2	452.4	+50.2 (+12.5%)
Operating cash flow (JPY Billion)	104.8	428.0	+323.2
Free cash flow (JPY Billion)	−43.4	279.0	+322.4
EPS (JPY)	81.3	129.7	+48.4
ROE	4.3%	6.2%	+1.9%
Dividend per share (JPY)	52.0	57.0	+5.0
Dividend payout ratio	64.0%	43.9%	−20.1%

Shareholder Returns

Asahi’s financial policy guidelines through 2030 target a DOE (dividend on equity) of 4% or higher via progressive dividends and flexible share buybacks; DOE progress stood at 2.7% in 2025, versus 2.9% in 2024. In 2025, the company bought back approximately 40.4 million of its own shares worth roughly JPY 70.0 billion to improve capital efficiency. Dividend per share rose JPY 3 to JPY 52.0 in 2025, and is forecast to rise a further JPY 5 to JPY 57.0 in 2026. The dividend payout ratio was 64.0% in 2025 and is forecast at 43.9% in 2026. Net Debt/EBITDA stood at 3.70x in 2025, above the guideline to maintain close to 2.5–3x, and is forecast to fall to 2.91x in 2026 as interest-bearing debt is repaid. ROE was 4.3% in 2025 (guideline: 11% or higher; cost of shareholder equity roughly 8%) and ROIC was 6.1% (guideline: 10% or higher; WACC roughly 5.5–6%).

Key Indicator Guideline (Through 2030)	2024 Results	2025 Progress	Guideline
DOE (Shareholder Returns)	2.9%	2.7%	4% or higher
Net Debt / EBITDA (Financial Soundness)	2.49x	3.70x	Maintain close to 2.5–3x
ROE	7.5%	4.3%	11% or higher (cost of shareholder equity: roughly 8%)
ROIC	6.9%	6.1%	10% or higher (WACC: roughly 5.5–6%)

Topics: East Africa Business Acquisition

Asahi agreed to acquire Diageo plc’s East Africa business, comprising 100% of the shares in Diageo Kenya Limited and 53.68% of the shares in UDV (Kenya) Limited, resulting in an indirect acquisition of 65.00% of the shares in East African Breweries PLC (EABL), which oversees Diageo’s beer, spirits and RTD businesses in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania (the remaining 46.32% equity stake in UDV (Kenya) Limited is held by EABL). The target business operates 10 manufacturing sites, including 1 microbrewery in Kenya, and is expected to receive long-term licenses to continue selling Diageo’s brands. The transaction value is USD 3.0 billion (approx. JPY 465.4 billion, on an equity value basis), representing an EV/EBITDA multiple of approximately 17x (based on FYE June 2025), with the transaction date expected in H2 2026 (tentative). For FYE June 2025, EABL reported net sales of KES 128,791 million (JPY 154.6 billion) and EBITDA of KES 33,336 million (JPY 40.0 billion); EABL delivered volume growth of +8%, net sales growth of +11%, and EBIT growth of +20% in H1 FY2026 (July–December 2025, YoY). Asahi expects East Africa business (EABL) acquisition benefits to uplift profit from H2 2026 onward, and Net Debt/EBITDA is expected to increase to nearly 4x in 2026 following the acquisition before recovering to roughly 3x within 1–2 years.

This article is an analysis based on publicly available information and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. Investment decisions are your own responsibility.