Keisei Electric Railway (9009): FY2025 Results Summary — Record Narita Airport Ridership, Lower Operating Profit

This article is based on publicly available IR materials and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities.

Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd. reported operating revenue of 332,424 million yen for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 (FY2025), up 4.1% year on year, while operating profit declined 5.6% to 33,974 million yen. Ordinary profit was 58,605 million yen (-5.1%) and profit attributable to owners of parent was 48,023 million yen, down 31.4% from the previous year, which had included a gain on sale of shares of subsidiaries and associates of 53,157 million yen. In the Transportation segment, operating revenue increased with higher ridership to/from Narita Airport amid growing inbound demand, but operating profit decreased because of higher personnel expenses and one-off expenses related to business restructuring.

Consolidated Results (Full-Year Actual)

The company explains that profit items decreased relative to the extraordinary items recorded in the previous fiscal year, namely, extraordinary income as gain on sale of shares of subsidiaries and associates associated with the sale of shares of subsidiaries and associates, and extraordinary loss (loss on change in equity). Share of profit of entities accounted for using equity method was 25,124 million yen, down 615 million yen (-2.4%). Some assets have been transferred between the Transportation and Real Estate segments as part of the business restructuring program and some assets have been transferred from the Leisure, Service segment to the Distribution segment following an absorption merger; results for previous years have been restated on the basis that these transfers had occurred by then.

Million yen, %	FY2024 Result	FY2025 Result	Change	% change
Operating revenue	319,314	332,424	13,109	4.1
Operating profit	36,008	33,974	-2,033	-5.6
Ordinary profit	61,755	58,605	-3,150	-5.1
(Share of profit of entities accounted for using equity method)	25,739	25,124	-615	-2.4
Profit attributable to owners of parent	69,961	48,023	-21,937	-31.4
(Gain on sale of shares of subsidiaries and associates)	53,157	–	-53,157	–
Depreciation	32,600	34,165	1,564	4.8

On the balance sheet, total assets rose 87,680 million yen to 1,181,801 million yen, as property, plant and equipment increased 53,790 million yen to 758,112 million yen on major construction projects in Transportation and acquisition of properties in Real Estate, and investment securities increased 44,583 million yen to 281,209 million yen on an increase in shares in equity method affiliates. Interest-bearing debt (including lease liabilities) was 400,096 million yen and net assets were 575,605 million yen. The equity-to-asset ratio improved to 47.2% from 46.5%, the EBITDA multiple rose to 5.9 from 5.3, and ROE was 9.0% against 14.6% a year earlier.

Segment Results

In Transportation, railway revenue rose on higher ridership to/from Narita Airport, bus revenue rose on a higher number of services following a timetable revision, and taxi revenue rose on higher revenue per vehicle; segment operating profit nevertheless fell 12.9%. In Distribution, the Store business achieved operating revenue growth thanks to contribution from new stores and strong existing store performance, but operating profit declined partly because of higher personnel expenses, and the Department store business posted an operating loss of 499 million yen. Real Estate operating revenue and profit increased with the contribution of new rental properties and the transfer of for-sale apartments in mid-rise apartment buildings. Construction revenue grew 18.7% on more civil engineering work.

Segment	Metric (million yen, %)	FY2024 Result	FY2025 Result	Change	% change
Transportation	Operating revenue	196,863	205,271	8,408	4.3
Transportation	Operating profit	20,195	17,586	-2,609	-12.9
Distribution	Operating revenue	59,648	61,026	1,378	2.3
Distribution	Operating profit	442	253	-188	-42.7
Real Estate	Operating revenue	36,427	39,368	2,941	8.1
Real Estate	Operating profit	11,290	11,563	273	2.4
Leisure, Service	Operating revenue	17,129	17,764	635	3.7
Leisure, Service	Operating profit	1,532	1,500	-31	-2.0
Construction	Operating revenue	36,252	43,014	6,762	18.7
Construction	Operating profit	2,366	2,596	230	9.7
Other	Operating revenue	11,793	11,993	200	1.7
Other	Operating profit	481	664	182	38.0

Transportation Performance and Narita Airport Traffic

On a non-consolidated basis, total ridership rose 1.7% to 391,309 thousand people and revenue from passengers rose 4.6% to 90,262 million yen. Passengers transported to/from Narita Airport came to 29 million in FY2025, up 8.7% year on year and the highest ever, and the presentation shows that traffic to/from Narita Airport accounted for 7.4% of total ridership and 36.0% of total passenger revenue. The company notes that ridership and revenue figures for 2025/3 and earlier years include the Matsudo Line, operated at the time by Shin-Keisei Electric Railway.

Item [Non-consolidated]	FY2024 Result	FY2025 Result	Change	% change
Number of passengers: Commuters (thousand people)	218,935	221,059	2,124	1.0
Number of passengers: Non-commuters (thousand people)	166,008	170,250	4,242	2.6
Number of passengers: Total (thousand people)	384,943	391,309	6,366	1.7
Revenue from passengers: Total (million yen)	86,288	90,262	3,973	4.6
To/from Narita Airport: passengers (thousand people)	26,690	29,008	2,318	8.7
To/from Narita Airport: revenue (million yen)	30,208	32,489	2,281	7.6
Charged limited express: passengers (thousand people)	9,182	9,929	747	8.1
Charged limited express: revenue (million yen)	9,340	10,194	854	9.1

FY2026 Forecast

For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2027 (FY2026), Keisei forecasts operating revenue of 359,800 million yen (+8.2%) and operating profit of 31,000 million yen (-8.8%). In Transportation, operating revenue will increase with higher ridership to/from Narita Airport, but operating profit will decrease because of higher expenses (personnel, electricity, fuel); Real Estate will benefit from new rental properties and the transfer of for-sale apartments in mid-rise apartment buildings. Share of profit of entities accounted for using equity method will decrease and interest expenses will increase. CapEx is planned at 129,000 million yen (+59.1%) and interest-bearing debt is expected to rise to 521,000 million yen.

Million yen, %	FY2025 Result	FY2026 (forecast)	Change	% change
Operating revenue	332,424	359,800	27,375	8.2
Operating profit	33,974	31,000	-2,974	-8.8
Ordinary profit	58,605	50,500	-8,105	-13.8
(Share of profit of entities accounted for using equity method)	25,124	23,400	-1,724	-6.9
(Interest expenses)	3,427	5,700	2,272	66.3
Profit attributable to owners of parent	48,023	39,300	-8,723	-18.2
Depreciation	34,165	37,300	3,134	9.2
CapEx	81,090	129,000	47,909	59.1
Interest-bearing debt	400,096	521,000	120,903	30.2
EBITDA multiple	5.9	7.7	1.8 pt	―
ROE	9.0	7.5	-1.5 pt	―

Shareholder Returns

Keisei states that, in order to provide sustained value, its basic policy is for stable profit distribution to shareholders, considering results and medium- and long-term investment plans relating to the Narita Airport upgrade. The company targets a consolidated payout ratio of at least 30% in FY2027 and will implement share buybacks and other enhancements to shareholder returns flexibly as its financial situation and business conditions allow. For the FY2025 dividend, it plans an interim dividend of ¥9 per share and a year-end dividend of ¥12 per share for a total annual dividend of ¥21 per share. For FY2026, it plans an interim dividend of ¥11 per share and a year-end dividend of ¥11 per share for a total annual dividend of ¥22 per share. The FY2024 annual dividend of ¥21.0 included ¥5 of commemorative dividend, and the FY2023 dividend of ¥13.0 included ¥2.7 of commemorative dividend; dividends are shown after the stock split.

Item	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026 (forecast)
Annual dividend per share	¥13.0	¥21.0	¥21.0	¥22.0
Consolidated payout ratio	7.4%	14.6%	21.1%	27.0%

Medium-Term Business Plan: D2 Plan

The D2 Plan covers FY2025–2027 as the second phase of the long-term D Plan (2022–2030), with the goal of improving Narita airport access, enhancing profitability and resilience to external change, and transforming the corporate structure. Measured in operating profit, the business portfolio was Transportation 52%, Real Estate 34% and Other 14% in FY2025, and the company projects Transportation 39%, Real Estate 44% and Other 17% in FY2026 (forecast) and Transportation 52%, Real Estate 36% and Other 12% in FY2027 (target). Real Estate is described as the second growth driver, with the opening of Aeon Mall Tsudanuma South, mixed-use development in the Shin-Kamagaya Station vicinity and acquisition of rental properties; approximately ¥30 billion of the strategic investment budget for Real Estate was spent in FY2025, bringing the cumulative amount spent since the start of D2 to ¥90 billion.

KPI	FY2025 (result)	FY2027 (target)
Operating revenue	¥332.4 billion	¥375.0 billion
Operating profit	¥33.9 billion	¥38.0 billion
Investment	¥81.0 billion	Total ¥300.0 billion (FY2025–2027)
ROE	9.0%	≥8%
EBITDA multiple	5.9 times	7x range
Shareholder returns	Consolidated payout ratio: 21.1%	Consolidated payout ratio: ≥30%

Topics: Narita Airport Access

Keisei is preparing a new charged limited express service between Oshiage and Narita Airport, to be launched in FY2028, and is planning capacity upgrades including new tracks (quadruple tracking) for the Narita Sky Access Line, double-tracking of the section between Narita-Yukawa and Narita Airport Terminal 1, and functional improvements at Narita Airport stations. Expansion of the Sō go depot is to be completed in March 2029, and a timetable revision adding Skyliner services took place in December 2025. The company’s estimate of cumulative investment in improving access to Narita Airport is approximately ¥800 bn through the 2040s, of which ¥37 bn falls in the D2 Plan and about ¥45 bn in the D3 Plan. It also signed a mutual collaboration agreement with Keikyu Corporation in October 2025 concerning joint planning to improve access to Narita Airport.

This article is an analysis based on publicly available information and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. Investment decisions are your own responsibility.