JR Central (9022): FY2025 Results Summary — Record Profit as Shinkansen Demand Stays Strong, FY2026 Guidance Points to a Pullback

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Central Japan Railway Company (JR Central) reported increases in revenues and income for FY2025 (fiscal year ended March 31, 2026) on both a non-consolidated and consolidated basis, with non-consolidated transportation revenues reaching 111% of the FY2024 level (1,585.3 billion yen versus 1,432.5 billion yen). The company attributes the growth to base demand (6 percentage points), the Osaka-Kansai Expo (3 percentage points) and inbound demand (2 percentage points); it also notes that FY2024 included a 1 percentage point negative impact from transportation disruptions. For FY2026, JR Central forecasts decreases in revenues and income on both a non-consolidated and consolidated basis, citing a challenging business environment.

Consolidated Results (FY2025 Actual)

On a consolidated basis, operating revenues rose to 2,006.2 billion yen (109.5% of FY2024’s 1,831.8 billion yen), and operating income rose to 830.1 billion yen (118.1%). Ordinary income increased to 780.9 billion yen (120.3%), and net income increased to 561.7 billion yen (121.0%), of which net income attributable to owners of the parent was 552.8 billion yen (120.6% of FY2024’s 458.4 billion yen). On a non-consolidated basis, operating revenues were 1,663.2 billion yen (110.1%), transportation revenues were 1,585.3 billion yen (110.7%, of which Shinkansen contributed +148.1 billion yen and conventional lines +4.7 billion yen), operating income was 774.4 billion yen (117.9%), and net income was 512.6 billion yen (119.0%).

Item (Consolidated, Billions of yen)	FY2026.3 (=FY2025 Actual)	FY2025.3 (=FY2024 Actual)	Increase/(Decrease)	%
Operating revenues	2,006.2	1,831.8	174.3	109.5
Transportation	1,641.6	1,490.5	151.1	110.1
Merchandise and Other	174.4	163.1	11.3	106.9
Real Estate	55.5	51.8	3.7	107.2
Other	134.5	126.3	8.2	106.5
Operating expenses	1,176.0	1,129.0	46.9	104.2
Operating income	830.1	702.7	127.3	118.1
Ordinary income	780.9	649.2	131.6	120.3
Income before income taxes	779.3	645.8	133.4	120.7
Net income	561.7	464.3	97.3	121.0
Net income attributable to owners of the parent	552.8	458.4	94.4	120.6

Segment Results

JR Central discloses results by reportable segment (Transportation, Merchandise and Other, Real Estate, Other) and separately provides results for major group companies. Note: segment operating revenues include intersegment sales as well as sales to external customers, so segment totals differ slightly from the consolidated income statement figures above. All four segments increased both operating revenue and segment profit (operating income) year on year. Among group companies, Nippon Sharyo posted the largest gains, with operating income up to 174.7% of the prior year and net income up to 226.2%, while JR Tokai Takashimaya’s operating income declined to 83.0% of the prior year.

Segment (Billions of yen)	Metric	FY2026.3 (=FY2025 Actual)	FY2025.3 (=FY2024 Actual)	%
Transportation	Operating revenue	1,653.9	1,502.2	110.1
Merchandise and Other	Operating revenue	183.0	171.4	106.8
Real Estate	Operating revenue	95.7	86.6	110.4
Other	Operating revenue	291.9	272.6	107.1
Transportation	Segment profit (operating income)	767.4	649.7	118.1
Merchandise and Other	Segment profit (operating income)	15.8	15.6	101.3
Real Estate	Segment profit (operating income)	25.2	22.8	110.5
Other	Segment profit (operating income)	24.4	15.5	157.0

FY2026 Forecast

For FY2026 (fiscal year ending March 31, 2027), JR Central assumes transportation revenue growth will normalize after the Osaka-Kansai Expo ends, projecting non-consolidated transportation revenues of 1,554.0 billion yen, 98% of the FY2025 level (first half 96%, reflecting a 5% decrease from the absence of the Expo plus 1% underlying growth; second half 100%, reflecting a 1% decrease from the Expo plus 1% underlying growth). On a segment basis, total operating revenues are forecast at 1,993.0 billion yen (99.3% of FY2026.3 actual) and total segment profit at 702.0 billion yen (84.6%), with the Transportation segment forecast at 1,621.0 billion yen in revenue (98.0%) and 651.0 billion yen in segment profit (84.8%). JR Central also expects an approximately 40 billion yen non-consolidated expense impact in FY2026 from higher labor and material costs (of which approximately 20 billion yen relates to measures responding to the revision of the Construction Business Act), which it plans to offset through cost reduction under its Reform of Business Operations initiative and by working toward a system allowing more flexible reflection of inflation in railway fares and fees.

Item (Billions of yen)	FY2027.3 Forecast	FY2026.3 (=FY2025 Actual)	Increase/(Decrease)	%
Operating revenues (segment total)	1,993.0	2,006.2	(13.2)	99.3
Transportation (segment)	1,621.0	1,653.9	(32.9)	98.0
Merchandise and Other (segment)	190.0	183.0	6.9	103.8
Real Estate (segment)	94.0	95.7	(1.7)	98.2
Other (segment)	312.0	291.9	20.0	106.9
Segment profit (operating income) total	702.0	830.1	(128.1)	84.6
Transportation (segment)	651.0	767.4	(116.4)	84.8
Transportation revenues (non-consolidated)	1,554.0	1,585.3	n/a (98% assumption)	98

Shareholder Returns

The year-end dividend for FY2025 is 16 yen per share, in line with the dividend forecast announced last April, bringing the annual dividend to 32 yen per share. The dividend forecast for FY2026 is 16 yen per share for both the interim and year-end dividends. The company will also acquire 20 billion yen of treasury stock. JR Central notes it conducted a 100-for-1 stock split effective October 1, 2012 and a 5-for-1 stock split effective October 1, 2023, and that annual dividends per share are shown after adjustment for these splits. JR Central states it will continue to pay stable dividends and accumulate internal reserves to secure funds for Chuo Shinkansen construction costs and other expenses, while making the investments necessary to ensure safety.

Medium-Term Plan / Topics

JR Central’s growth strategy rests on three pillars: Reform of Business Operations (targeting an 80 billion yen reduction in recurring costs over 10 to 15 years), Revenue Expansion (creation of new demand and pricing strategies), and Cash Flow Generation to fund safety investments, Chuo Shinkansen investments and other growth investments, with the resulting cash flow directed to shareholder returns and increased corporate value. On cost reform, the actual cumulative effect in FY2025 was approximately 30 billion yen, and the plan for FY2026 is approximately 45 billion yen cumulative; effects have come from personnel and non-personnel expenses in the railway business, and from FY2025 actual results also include capital investment and head office functions. On revenue expansion, the estimated revenue increase from new demand creation initiatives was 10+ billion yen in FY2024 and 20+ billion yen in FY2025. On the Chuo Shinkansen (maglev) project, as of March 31, 2026, 82 main construction contracts have been signed (covering approximately 90% of the approximately 286 km section between Shinagawa and Nagoya), land acquisition has reached approximately 85%, and securing of utilization sites for excavated soil has reached approximately 85%; cumulative capital expenditure on the project from FY2014 to FY2025 totaled 2,336.1 billion yen. Separately, following resolution by the Board of Directors, the JR Central Group has identified seven materiality items (Safety, Service, Local communities, Global environment, Human capital, Innovation, Governance) for sustainability disclosure aligned with SSBJ Standards.

This article is an analysis based on publicly available information and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. Investment decisions are your own responsibility.